This Week On-Chain #68 - Bottom Signals, Fjord, Runes, ZKCasino Rug
The worst is hopefully behind us.
Happy Bitcoin halving!
This weekend seems to have been among the final shakeouts as people got scared and capitulated their tokens when the news about a potential World War 3 broke out. My idea was simple here, it was ridiculous to sell tokens because of a potential war because if that would happen, imaginary magic internet money would be the last concern. Turns out it was nothing to be worried about and we carry on living our lives as normal.
Hopefully, the FUD calms down from here and the best is yet to come. Let’s see.
Market Digest
Magic Eden launches platform for Runes
I managed to cause some drama regarding Fjord, did not expect it to blow up
A dive into Stacks Nakamoto upgrade
USDT is now available on the TON network
Shiba Inu ecosystem raises $15M
Thruster Finance raises $7.5M in a seed round
Avail announced airdrop
Avi Eisenberg convicted for $110M Mango attack
ZKCasino rugs $30M from prior investors
Tough markets always lead to dodgy behavior. Coincidence? I think not.
Choppy markets are always a good time to do some airdrop farming in case you want to farm some Grass.
Bridge Flow
Capital has been flowing from both Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum to Solana over the past few days as cat memes became hot again. POPCAT has been the one sparking this and the data indicates that people have been bridging over to buy the token. It will most likely follow on Base which has also received some flows back from Solana, keep your eyes on the cats.
DEX Volumes
On-chain remains relatively dead except for a few outliers that are catching interest which can be seen in the chart. Volume continues to trend downward as people remain cautious. Normally when you have a Bitcoin halving it is a lagging effect and takes 1-2 months before you start to see the effect—either way, probably a good time to start watching Bitcoin miners.
Pair Volumes
These are the only alts that have sustained any kind of interest over the past week with RUNIX running up quickly only to sell off as it is a testament to how starved we are of on-chain action when people are bidding “Bitcoin Runes on Ethereum”. BVM has been a mainstay here for the past 2 weeks but is showing significant weakness while PEPE is making a resurgence again.
An increasing amount of activity has shifted to Base which is where the other half of the Ethereum on-chain action is taking place as DEGEN continues to be the most actively traded token of the ecosystem. Meanwhile, REKT and BOBA are following suit accordingly.
Arbitrum volume pales in comparison to this and is a clear signal of how the times have changed. Gone are the days when everybody was excited about Arbitrum and resided there, Base is continuously solidifying itself as PENDLE remains the main token of interest on Arbitrum for now.
NFT Trading Volume
It’s been a slower week in NFT land as Pudgy Penguins and Milady continue to grind up while the majority of the other collections continue to fall further behind them while it must be frustrating holding a Bored Ape at the moment.
Interesting mints
Everything is happening on Runes at the moment although this minted out on Blast over the past few days:
SATOSHI NAKAMOTO - The first Runes that were launched and minted out immediately.
Runemilio - New Remilia-based NFT collection on Bitcoin.
This is not an endorsement of these, I still think the better option is to stick to proven winners such as Bitcoin Puppets and PUPS until a clear winner emerges. The likelihood of being right is much better by doing that.
Net Inflow
People want all the ETH as it has been heavily bought (by Justin Sun notably) over the past few days. RUNIX had a short rally because people were simply bored on-chain but it didn’t last long, while Gnosis Safe launched their token SAFE. MKR continues to be strong during market uncertainty, truly a defensive token that keeps being forgotten when people talk about RWA.
Same trend on Base with the demand being on ETH, to begin with. We see some demand for TKN and MAVIA as well as gaming tokens have been strong over the past few days. NOGS, VIRTUAL, FOMO, and DEGEN have also been interesting to the on-chain degens over the past few days as Base activity is starting to pick up again.
Same trend on Arbitrum too while we see some interest for the DMT token alongside MAGIC and PENDLE. Not often do we see WOO and WINR on this list which might be a sign that people are willing to accumulate Arbitrum tokens, especially WINR which normally tends to show an appetite for gambling-related tokens as well.
Sleuthing
Justin Sun to the rescue? He has bought over $500M worth of ETH over the past few days as ETH sentiment is at all-time lows considering an ETH denial is expected and priced in. An official denial would most likely mark the bottom.
Token Unlocks
Step App - 1,2% of supply worth $445,331 on April 26th
Axelar - 2,68% of supply worth $34,28m on April 27th
My Neighbor Alice - 0,83% of supply worth $1,05m on April 28th
Rarible - 0,3% of supply worth $279,000 on April 28th
Optimism Foundation - 1,15% of supply worth $76,34m on April 28th
WOOFi - 0,4% of supply worth $3,82m on April 29th
Starknet - 1,22% of supply worth $141,41m on April 30th
That’s it for this week, choppy price action seems to continue for now, it’s just a matter of surviving. See you next week.
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