While the market continues to weed out the non-believers who are impatient, activity still remains as high as ever and the good news along with the bad news continue to flow which is a sign of the times when we have been in a downtrend for a long time while people get frustrated as soon as we don’t have Up Only.
Remember, if you don’t sell your high-conviction plays and sit on your hands you can’t get chopped up. Now is not the time to actively trade in adverse conditions. Summer seasonality is playing its part while we are waiting for the ETH ETF
It’s been a crazy week filled with news left, right and center so let’s check in on that.
Polkadot make waves for their obscene marketing expenses
Pendle loses 3B in TVL after restaking related PT’s expires
MegaETH raises $20M from Angels including Vitalik Buterin
SEC sues Consensys for offering unregistered securities
VanEck files for Solana ETF
mrgnfi plans to launch mrgnswap allowing you to long/short newly launched memecoins
Circle’s USDC becomes the first stablecoin to become compliant with MiCa
Bittensor halts chain after wallets worth $8M were compromised
Drama between Borpa and EntangleFi
Phase 1 of ASI (AI Super Intelligence) merger has started
Sony ready to launch crypto exchange
Bridge Flow
Solana continues to absorb capital from other chains as that is where the majority of on-chain activity is taking place right now as people are gambling on memecoins. The majority of other chains are dead in activity right now and lack volatility. If you need to kill your urge to gamble, Solana is the place to be.
DEX Volumes
DEX volumes are trending downwards again as summer seasonality clearly is kicking in and have been trending down since the end of May. We have had some spikes a couple of times in June but they have remained shortlived as people are taking less risk and protecting capital.
Pair Volumes
This table is a sign of the times as it is clear that people have a low appetite for altcoins as they have significantly de-risked as you can see with the heavy USDC and USDT volume as people have sold off ETH.
People are definitely more degenerate on SOL but the USDC-SOL pair is dominating the charts by magnitude in comparison to last week. While people still gamble on memecoins more on this chain, there has been significant de-risking on Solana as well.
For the first time in a while, BRETT is not the number 1 traded token on Base as the MAGA token has trumped it over the past week. Otherwise, it is a bunch of random memecoins that are new to the party that has received some trading activity over the past week. However, in comparison to when Base season was hot, it is meager.
ZRO has been the best performer of the market over the past week and it is no surprise to see it be so heavily traded on Arbitrum over the past week. Considering the chain has lacked volume for altcoins ZRO stands out. PENDLE experienced a stark sell-off due to capital flight and has had significant trading activity as well.
NFT Trading
Pudgy Penguins have shown significant strength in comparison to the rest of the market and continue to show that Pudgies and Remilia assets like Milady seem to be the chosen Ethereum NFTs of this cycle.
Interesting Mints
Kemonokaki - Remilia-based NFT on Base which seems to have no competition and has 5xed over the past week. If the Base ecosystem cements itself as a strong ecosystem, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Kemonokaki’s as the nr 1 NFTs of Base.
Net Inflow
It’s clear to see that people are de-risking or resorting to farming on ETH as the majority of the tokens accumulated over the past week have been LRTs and LSTs while alts have been sold off for them. The only altcoins that have received some kind of inflow are MKR and cvxCRV.
On Solana people are taking a little bit more risk, so while SOL has been the most bought token (which people have sold memes for) we have still seen memes like WIF, POPCAT, MEW, BONK, BILLY, Michi, etc receive significant bids over the past week. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the heart of the gamblers is residing on Solana.
I would argue the Base ecosystem has seen the most violent sell-off out of any ecosystem over the past week as it has been a brutal period for Base ecosystem token holders out there. $18M worth of capital has flowed into USDC which most likely has come directly from other tokens. Yikes. Proper de-risking over there.
Same story on Arbitrum but more concentrated for wstETH and USDC and weETH. Apart from the de-risking here as well, you mainly see ZRO and TAP receive bids while the remaining part of the ecosystem continues to bleed. I dove into it last Sunday why these tokens might present a compelling opportunity for the advanced substack.
Sleuthing
Binance whale that tried to frontrun the Ethereum ETF by buying “ETH beta plays” sells them all for a loss as he re-deposits them into Binance. Many people asked the other day what was up with AAVE, well this was it.
Token Unlocks
LQTY - 0.68% of supply worth $525k on July 5th
GAL - 2.60% of supply worth $6.58m on July 5th
NTRN - 0.10% of supply worth $140.7k on July 5th
FORT - 0.01% of supply worth $7.76k on July 7th
HFT - 3.23% of supply worth $2.61m on July 7th
ENA - 0.87% of supply worth $6.69m on July 7th
July is going to be a month of brutal unlocks, so make sure you’re not holding the wrong altcoins or make sure you know what you’re getting into. More likely that BTC and ETH will outperform them this month until the trend shifts again.
Remain patient and keep bullieving. Bull markets aren’t supposed to be easy but they are damn sure worthwhile.
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