The crypto industry has gone from being an obscure cypherpunk to closely watching the FOMC and what President Powell had to say about rate cuts. With a 50 bps rate cut announced we have entered the easing cycle that people were very excited about. While there is still an election to come into play causing some short-term uncertainties, things are starting to get interesting, to say the least.
Additionally, Trump is bringing ICO’s back. Although I’d avoid holding this token over the foreseeable future even if it might lead to interesting short-term price action, the distribution is better than the majority of new launches nowadays.
Still, I think he is badly advised based on the team they have surrounded themselves with to build this project barring a few individuals, and leaves an attack vector in the middle of a Presidential campaign.
Strange decision to take, but what do I know?
Although as long as he continues to champion Bitcoin Burgers and the industry as a whole I am not going to complain, we need more allies and not enemies.
Market Digest
Circle launches native USDC on Sui
63% of the WLFI tokens will be sold to the public
Nillon integrates with NEAR protocol to offer privacy solutions to developers
BlockChat plans to deploy on Quilibrium
MicroStrategy plans to buy more Bitcoin
Kemonokaki community goes into war with Base over Discord banning etc.
WalletConnect set to airdrop their token WCT
DeFi protocol Delta Prime gets exploited for $6m
Revolut plans on building a stablecoin
Bridge Flow
Solana has seen a staggering $862M in net flows over the past few weeks which stands out as among the largest ones over the past year. Trying to get down to the bottom of what is the main cause of this but it is definitely interesting. Unless it is solely because of frontrunning a potential Solana breakpoint trade but time will tell. Meanwhile, Sui continues to be strong as has had $59M in net in flows as well which is significant due to the size of the current Sui ecosystem.
DEX Volumes
Spike in DEX volume in early September that cooled down but you can start to sense that the tide is starting to turn and that we ra on the up again with continues upwards spike on a weekly basis as sidelined capital is starting to nibble into the market again.
It’s time to pay attention.
Pair Volumes
The NEIRO drama alone is a good example of on-chain starting to get interesting although it has been chaotic PvP over the past few weeks. The “cabal” NEIRO (which indicates that it was supply controlled and bundled) was listed on Bybit perps, spot and Binance perps. Then Binance continued to do due dilligence and realized that this was the supply controlled one and listed the community driven NEIRO on Binance spot sending it up over 20x while delisting the cabal one. A lot if involved parties in the first NEIRO were mad to say the least because they thought they had a guaranteed win.
I’d say that justice prevailed but oh well. Outside of that, we’ve seen renewed interest for the FIGHT token (Trump narrative) and CATE as another cabal token that is supposed to be Neiro’s sister. As I am writing this out I realize how bizarre it sounds. Well at least a fundamental protocol like Aave is getting bids too.
Despite the inflows to the ecosystem the on-chain activity is lacking the previous juice that it once had and is being dwarfed by Ethereum which is rare to see. However, a few outliers with strong communities are emerging that are outperforming the rest of the ecosystem. POPCAT is the obvious one, BILLY is experiencing a resurgence, WIF has been surprisingly weak and to be frank, JLP being so strong indicates that people are risk averse which is a sign to take the other side of the trade. Things can shift fast.
The same can be said for the Base ecosystem that continues to decrease in volume while mainnet gains in strength. AERO doing that low volume is normally not a good indicator of strength and only B-tier memes are making in into this list at the moment where all the main ones are suffering from a lack of interest.
Arbitrum right now consists of PENDLE and ZRO while plays as Gammaswap is a sleeper that isn’t being picked up here. Apart from that there isn’t really much to see here and hasn’t been for a very long time.
On another note, it would be great if Dune could add Sui so it could feature it in this substack, Arbitrum is on a slippery slope.
NFT Trading
Few collection showing a little bit of strength such as SMB on SOL, Azukis and Pudgy Penguins, Nodemonkes and y00ts.
Additionally, while Base has been suffering from a lack of on-chain trading activity with tokens at least NFTs on the ecosystem has been doing decently over the past week.
Interesting new mints
hoomans - Simple NFT collection that tries to be one people can identify with. Many Azuki PFPs has taken a liking to it which has helped it gain traction. Minted for $10.
Capy Friends - Launched as a pre mint to a token launch and has done very well.
Net Inflow
NEIRO is undoubtedly the star of the week due to the strong performance it has endured with over $7m worth of positive in flows over the past week which doesn’t include echanges as well. PRIME is one that is flying under the radar as an AI + gaming protocol that is being actively accumulated as well. While the DYAD stable performing well and experiencing demand is good for the Kerosene token.
Unsurprising to see the POPCAT token leading the charge on Solana as it is the loudest and strongest community at the moment while WIF is taking a backseat for the time being. CLOUD is a infrastructure protocol for liquid staking that has direct partnerships with exchanges which is why it has been doing well as one of the few interesting utility plays on Solana. BILLY is resurging after having gone through a 90% drawdown in similar mold to SCF but at least these events build stronger hands in the community.
Despite not generating a lot of demand, AERO remains the most accumulated token on Base and this needs to be the case if the ecosystem should do well again. Considering it powers the whole ecosystem by being the main liquidity source for it a healthy AERO equals a healthy Base. There has been interest for WELL as well as the leading Base native lending protocol. Memes likely take a backseat before coming back with roaring force later.
ZRO is the one that stands out as an interesting token on Arbitrum, apart from that there is not really much going on there. There has been miniscule interest on PENDLE as LayerZero is carrying the Arbitrum ecosystem at the moment.
Sleuthing
Every time you wake up, a new old Ethereum ICO whale has found tokens to sell. Fascinating and while general sentiment is starting to improve, Ethereum sentiment remains in the gutter.
Bottom soon?
Token Unlocks
LISTA - 12.31% of supply worth $8.13m on Sep 20th
ID - 18.23% of supply worth $25.97m on Sep 22nd
GAL - 0.46% of supply worth $1.21M on Sep 22nd
ENA - 0.78% of supply worth $3.47m on Sep 22nd
PENDLE - 0.02% of supply worth $100.04k on Sep 25th
ACA - 0.43% of supply worth $286.94k on Sep 25th
VENOM - 12.67% of supply worth $24.87m on Sep 25th
Whatever happens from here, there has never been a better time to lock in.
Good luck.
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