This Week On-Chain #73 - Climbing the Wall of Worry
Disbelief
We are at a stage in the cycle where the majority of people are severely suffering from bear market ptsd while we are hovering below all-time highs. As people are being worried we are continuing to climb in price which is a good sign as bull markets tend to climb a wall of worry. It is only when people aren’t worried anymore and think it’s a new paradigm that the top is near and either way, 99.9% of people won’t sell the top anyway so everyone is better off scaling out with time and trying to keep as much capital as possible.
Still, we have had tons of news over the past week while memecoins and celebrities have been the center of attention (yes you heard that right). With people like Iggy Azalea, Soulja Boy, Lil Pump, etc entering the fore again. People remembering the top signals of the last cycle are getting worried again.
Market Digest
ECB planning its first rate cut
DWF Labs CEO announces plans to invest in memecoins
FTX executive Ryan Salame sentenced to 7.5 years in prison
Uniswap Foundation's on-chain proposal regarding the fee switch happens on the 31st of May.
Binance Labs invests in Aevo
Article about DeFi inflation attacks
GCR account was hacked and he claims that an insider at X was bribed
DeFi money raises funds for a new decentralized stablecoin
Bridge Flow
With multiple celebrities appearing on Crypto Twitter with the purpose of launching tokens it is no surprise to see capital flowing to Solana again as people are chasing the pumps of these tokens. It is about to get really weird here as I’m not expecting this type of behavior to stop anytime soon. However, make sure that the majority of your portfolio is in majors when stuff like this takes place as there could be a sucker punch at any time.
DEX Volumes
All activity is continuing to accelerate across the chains except Base that is continuing to slumber in comparison to the other ones. It still provides an assymetric opportunity with the impending launch of the Coinbase smart wallet that should kickstart the next Base season. Right now, activity has skyrocketed on Ethereum and will likely continue to do so until the gas fees become too high.
Pair Volumes
The volume on mainnet has skyrocketed over the past week and we are finally seeing true bull market numbers now. As attention has been on memes they have taken the centerpiece of the traded tokens over the past week. SBI can be ignored despite how eye-catching it is on the chart considering the volume is artificial. The same rings true for KIYO and The Glitch. However, MAGA, MOG, PEPE, PEW, and TURBO all exploded in both price action and volume over the past week.
Normie is at the top of the volume chart due to being hacked over the past week and going to zero. PEW jumped on the bandwagon of PEW on ETH and has been heavily traded on Base although it isn’t the same token. There is still no winner within the Base ecosystem, and the heavy on-chain users can likely feel a storm brewing there.
Arbitrum has also slowed down in comparison to last week with PENDLE now being as explosive as it was at that point and the ARB token slowing down in trading activity as well. However, the Arbitrum LTIPP (long-term incentives pilot program) probably starts next week so if you are uncertain where the market will go you should take the opportunity to farm the rewards of that pool.
NFT Trading Volume
NFTs have been weak across the board except for the pump that took place when ETH had its explosive candle. While they are starting to show some interest they probably won’t explode in value until the mania phase when people have made lots of wealth already and want to showcase this by flashing high-value NFTs that the majority is priced out of.
It’s been such a long time since there was actually an interesting mint on ETH outside of Heroglyphs and that likely won’t change anytime soon.
NFT frenzy is a good signal that we are nearing the end of the cycle, keep that in mind for the future when you see them going crazy.
Net Inflow
1inch token has surprisingly been heavily accumulated over the past week which is not something I got to say very often. Maybe something knows something or is there an announcement coming? Worth watching. With Trump continuing to support crypto the new MAGA token surged to 200M in 3 days. STG started to pump as people anticipate the LayerZero airdrop being very close. PEW is the latest on-chain cooker that did over 60M in volume after appearing out of nowhere. UNI token is increasing in interest as the voting will start tomorrow.
As I alluded to before NORMIE has been the most accumulated (and sold off) token over the past week as it got hacked. Further down you see a second NORMIE token which is in response to this as a new one was launched. MOG has been the best-performing memecoin alongside PEPE over the past week and is showing up here as their contract is also live on Base. SPEC has seen renewed interest despite the AI sector showing weakness.
GMX is continuing to creep up in price unnoticed after bottoming when Arthur Hayes sold his position and should be watched as it continues to be heavily accumulated. RDNT is a token that is built with LayerZero technology and might benefit from an impending LZO airdrop. PENDLE is simply a juggernaut and will continue to be here while MAGIC and WINR are getting slight interest again which is good to see.
Sleuthing
Celebrity tokens should not be touched for your own sanity. This is Davido (Afrobeat artist) launching a coin and getting 20% of the supply and immediately nuking it to make a quick buck off it.
It’s a cold world out there.
Token Unlocks
Tornado Cash - 6,11% of supply worth $278,667 on May 31st
dYdX - 3,33% of supply worth $68m on June 1st
MAV - 0,41% of supply worth $2,85m on June 1st
Redacted - 1,88% of supply worth $3,7m on June 1st
Sui - 1,71% of supply worth $175,58m on June 1st
Cetus - 1,25% of supply worth $1,25m on June 2nd
Cheelee - 2,08% of supply worth $423,25m on June 3rd
Liquity - 0,75% of supply worth $843,917 on June 4th
That’s it for this week, the ending message is simple here. Keep bullieving!
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