This Week On-Chain #93 - Shakeout Before Breakout
This Week On-Chain #93 - Shakeout Before Breakout
Nobody said this would be easy.
Bitcoin has been ranging for 7 months now and edging both bulls and bears as people desperately wait for a breakout and the mania phase to begin. In the meantime, the discourse between other sectors and memecoins continues as the frustration continues.
This is a good thing cause we most likely aren’t close to the top unless many people are happy. If you weren’t aware (or here for that matter) last cycle. Nobody was fussed about memecoins doing well because the majority of people had already made a lot of money in other market sectors. Since that hasn’t been the case yet there is an apparent frustration with memecoins sucking liquidity and bids from other market sectors.
Still, there are plenty of opportunities out there if you’re willing to look while you can spend time on memecoins to distract you. I’ll be diving into a few of these during the weekend for the upgraded substack.
Market Digest
Fuel Mainnet is live
Italy raises capital gains tax on Bitcoin from 26% to 42%
The FTX staking address distributed 178,631.75 SOL ($27.5M) to 20 addresses
UAE Central Bank approves launch of AED stablecoin
Ethena Labs proposing adding SOL as collateral for USDe
Grass airdrop checker to be live on Oct 21
BlackRock claims digital assets are outpacing other major technologies in growth
HarryPotterObamaInu $Bitcoin hits new ATH
Crypto game “Off The Grid” flips Fortnite in EpicGames most popular free-to-play game in ranking
Bridge Flow
It’s surprising to see the flows to Sui eclipse the one to Solana over the past week while memecoins on Solana are in a mania phase. There are tokens such as Deepbook that have been doing very well on Sui that are flying under the radar. Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean that the flows to Solana aren’t strong as well considering $85M has entered the ecosystem over the past week.
DEX Volumes
DEX trading volume continues to trade up and to the right which is a good sign of the times we are finding ourselves in. More people are taking an interest in on-chain activity which can be seen by the price action lately. We’re still far from frothy which is a good sign though.
Pair Volumes
One thing to worth noting even if the general DEX volume is trending upwards is that the crazy SPX volume is slowing down which is coinciding with a slowdown in volume for the token as well (less sales being absorbed). However, considering such an impressive run it’s no surprise that it has to cooldown for a bit. While SPX is taking a breather Neiro is making a comeback and MSTR which is an SPX beta has suffered a severe drawdown as people learn beta works both ways.
GOAT is the story of Solana right now as an AI bot that is currently experiencing a monster rally similar to what WIF did as ti acts as the intersection of the main narratives of this cycle which has been AI + Memes. The cats are taking a back seat for the time being but will likely have their time again alongside WIF.
AERO continues to be as strong and low cap memes that aren’t prevalent on this chart has followed it accordingly such as KEYCAT, FLOPPA etc as the ecosystem recently did a TVL all time high as well. However, Base emerging as the nr 1 L2 in TVL seem to have awaken an ecosystem from a deep slumber.
Looks like my post last week about “nothing to see here” was the actual bottom of the ecosystem (lol). Well, considering it was flipped by Base in TVL it has awoken the Arbitrum ants that is uniting by bidding the one ecosystem meme aggressively which is none other than boop. Arbitrum’s advantage here in comparison to other ecosystems is that the bid is concentrated which should bode well. Well worth watching.
NFT Trading
NFTs seem to be well and truly back and as many GOT watcher will know: “What is dead may never die”
.Top performing collections that are doing high volume include most of the following o this list such as. BAYC (surprisingly), Milady, Bitcoin Puppets, Frogana. However, the undisputed leaders seem to be Retardio Cousins and Sproto Gremlims which both have very strong cult communities as well.
Retardio Cousins and Sproto Gremlins performance comes from the performance of the tokens associated with them both which are Retardio and HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu respectively.
Cult communities will likely continue to be more lucrative than new mints, but staying liquid > holding nfts unless you see that the nfts haven’t repriced with the tokens accordingly yet which recently was the case with AEON’s.
Net Inflow
Ethereum
Despite the memecoin mania, the inflows on Ethereum remains to be ETH derivatives while AAVE is the main token outside of ETH, BTC and stables that has received a strong bid likely to correlated with the raise from WLFI (Trump DeFi project). Aside form this TITANX is the alt that is standing out having received 2.5m in positive inflows over the past week.
Solana
GOAT is eclipsing everything and has received 221M in positive net inflow over the past week which is absolutely crazy. I think people forget what kind of volume these solana memes are doing on a frequent basis, MEW has received 96M while POPCAT has received 75M.
Base
Base net inflows are in similar mold to mainnet except for AERO which is experiencing a constant bid as it has received 10m in positive flows over the past week while WELL has received 1.2M.
Arbitrum
Arbitrum is well and tryly back with PENDLE, DMT and BOOP all receiving solid bid which is an indication of the ecosystem finally waking up and showing signs of health. This is probably an ecosystem worth bidding hard on a next dip considering it basically has bottomed.
Welcome back, we have missed you.
Sleuthing
PEPE holder lost $1.39M worth of PEPE, MSTR and APU after signing a permit phishing signature
Please be vigilant and use a wallet like Rabby that simulates your transactions which shows you what will happen beforehand. The deeper we go in a bull market the more prevalent the scams will be.
The worst thing you can do is to work hard to increase your net worth only to see it being taken away from you due to an error like this.
Token Unlocks
ADA - 0.05% of supply worth $6.40m on Oct 22nd
YGG - 3.64% of supply worth $6.62m on Oct 27th
TIA - 81.01% of supply worth $1.02b on Oct 30th
I am going to stop right there because we need to put emphasis on the large TIA unlock that will unlock 81% of the supply will take place in 13 days. Beware if you see an acceleration of TIA shills ramping up over the coming week.
Right now we are climbing the wall of worry, it’s not the time to be discouraged because alts are taking a breather after a strong run. It’s almost time.
I hope you enjoyed the post. Don’t forget that you are more than welcome to leave feedback or drop any questions in the comment section.
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